Ak Yatırım, Pegasus için hedef fiyatını 100,00 TL'den 130,00 TL'ye yükseltti, "endeksin üzerinde getiri" tavsiyesini sürdürdü. 

Ak Yatırım'ın Pegasus hisseleri için değerlendirmesi şöyle:

Stronger than expected operational performance leads to earnings beat

Quarterly financials: Pegasus Airlines (Pegasus) reported 3Q21 net profit of TRY593mn, up from a net income of TRY103mn in 3Q20, amid better operational performance, while higher FX losses hindered a more pronounced y/y increase. The bottom-line figure beat TRY495mn consensus estimate and our TRY395 call thanks to stronger than expected operational performance. Top-line of TRY4.54bn, up 205% y/y, was above our forecasts as RASK evolution (+77% of 3Q19 in Eur terms), particularly on the domestic routes, was ahead of our anticipations. CASK evolution (EUR2.98/ASK: 96% of 3Q19), on the other hand, was broadly in line with our forecast. This produced higher EBITDA of TRY1.74bn versus both our and consensus calls at TRY1.57bn. in Q3, along with the upbeat yield performance and cost management, the company returned to cash generation with EUR13mn/month from a monthly cash burn of EUR10mn in Q2 and EUR17mn monthly average since start of the pandemic. Positive cash reserve after deducting total short and long-term bank loans and debt instruments stands at EUR101mn as of end-3Q21.

Guidance: Management has upgraded their plan to deploy 70-75% of 2019 capacity to 85-90% during 2021 (in terms of ASKs). We expect strong traffic performance to continue in Q4 thanks to solid recovery in the demand side following relaxation of travel restrictions in key destinations (i.e. UK). In that context, we project ASK production of 74% of 2019 level for the full year. Furthermore, with cost initiatives still in place, the incremental increase in passenger traffic should continue producing above average margins during 4Q21 depending on yield evolution.

Comment: Thanks to the improving demand on easing travel restrictions throughout Q3, we were already expecting Pegasus to post strong operational performance during the quarter. However, yields were more upbeat than expected, leading to better operational performance. Hence, we expect a positive reaction in shares. Long-term direction of the stock will likely be dictated by the evolution passenger traffic trends, which casted encouraging indications during the recent months. We hope to get some indication on the future of the company and the industry during today’s conference call (at 17:00 local time).
 

Valuation: Following the stronger than expected recovery in the passenger traffic, particularly starting July, and yield evolution so far, we have raised our forecasts for Pegasus (EBITDA up by 28% and 11% for 2021 and 2022, respectively). This produced a new target price of TRY130.00/share. Based on our new estimates, Pegasus trades at 5.7x 2022F EV/EBITDA, which is at a discount to the peer group average of 7.2x. Hence, we keep our bullish view on Pegasus with “Outperform” rating.